COP in the Amazon: the good, the bad and the ugly

It began with high hopes and the promise of a new way of doing things, a Global Mutirão, but ended with a deal that failed to mention fossil fuels or deliver a promised deforestation roadmap. But with a strong presence by Indigenous peoples and the launch of a new mechanism to halt and reverse deforestation, there were still positive moves. Here are our essential takeaways from a COP in the Amazon.

By Darren Mckenzie, Communications Lead

Deforestation action – more money for forests ✔️

The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) aims to change the incentives around forests. It’s a scheme designed to pay countries for keeping tropical forests standing, in contrast to the profit motive for clearing them. And now it’s officially off the ground. It has raised almost US$7 billion to date – short of the US$25 billion sought from “sponsor” countries and philanthropies, but more countries are expected to contribute over the coming months.

Alongside the TFFF announcement, the Forest & Climate Leaders’ Partnership (FCLP) and its partners announced a renewed US$1.8 billion pledge specifically to support the land rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

“Deforestation is a shared problem, with shared responsibilities that require joint action. The TFFF is a critical platform to boost collaborative approaches and unlock actions.”

André Vasconcelos, Trase Global Engagement Lead

Financial flows are still grossly misaligned with forest goals, with harmful subsidies outweighing green subsidies by over 200:1. To deliver on the 2030 goals to halt and reverse deforestation, it will be critical to tackle the finance that fuels the destruction, alongside these positive efforts to reward forest protection. In this multi-pronged effort,  mechanisms like the TFFF represent a new collaborative tool against deforestation.

Leadership faltering from the UK and the EU ❌

In recent years the UK and EU have led groundbreaking global campaigns on tackling deforestation, but at this crucial juncture they are  falling back. Unlike Norway, Indonesia, Brazil, Germany and France, the UK failed to contribute to the TFFF – an initiative it helped design and champion. A tremendous letdown after spearheading the Glasgow Leaders Declaration at COP26 – the UK’s promises on climate and nature now risk becoming empty words.

And the EU too appears to be retreating from deforestation action. In 2023 the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) came into force – a world-leading law requiring companies to show that imports into the EU are deforestation-free. It’s already been delayed by a year and during COP member states backed another year-long delay (though this is yet to be legislatively finalised). What’s more, it’s under threat of being further weakened and undermined. 

Such backsliding is foolish given public opinion in both the EU and the UK is steadfastly in favour of forests and the economic chaos from climate change and nature loss will negatively impact their economies. Moreover, forward-looking businesses and investors are demanding action. The Belém Investor Statement on Rainforests, endorsed by 51 investors with more than US$4.5 trillion in assets, was just one such call. A direct demand for a more long-sighted view to protect forests, calling on governments to adopt and implement strong policies to halt and reverse deforestation.

The Amazon on the front line – efforts to transform Brazilian beef supply chains ✔️

The cattle sector has the most influence on deforestation in Brazil and indeed the world. Trase research shows  annual deforestation and conversion of native vegetation linked to pasture expansion rose by 36% between 2020 and 2023.

For too long the cattle sector has lagged behind, compared to action on soy or palm oil supply chains. But COP30 saw key announcements on beef traceability and an entire day was set aside to focus on deforestation and conversion-free supply chains. Scrutiny on the cattle sector is starting to bear fruit.

And the data and guidance exist to drive change. Our latest Floresta 250 – Cattle provides assessment data on the companies and financial institutions with the greatest influence on Brazilian cattle supply chains. Our Roteiro de Finanças Livres de Desmatamento is now updated and customised for Brazil’s financial sector, offering detailed guidance from understanding and mapping risk, through to engagement and onto nature positive investments. Six Brazilian financial institutions are working with us to build capacity and pilot implementation measures on deforestation and conversion free portfolios, using practical tools and datasets relevant to the Brazilian context.

“For financial institutions there is not a lack of awareness but a lack of implementation. Only 13% of the financial institutions we assess require companies to have traceability systems. Systemic engagement can translate commitments into measurable outcomes.”

Luis Meneses, Brazil Programme Director at Global Canopy

China is coming to the table ✔️

China turned up in force at COP30 in Belém. Its delegation – over 700 strong – was second in size only to Brazil’s. That’s because China is a world leader in the production of wind turbines, solar panels and electric cars. But it is also engaging with deforestation – where it can have a critical role, including through its burgeoning trade relationship with Brazil.

Through their imports and exports the Chinese and Brazilian economies depend upon each other.  69% of all China’s soy imports come from Brazil. China is the biggest export market for Brazilian cattle. And it is showing more interest and awareness of technical developments that can have implications for forests. Traceability provides importing countries like China with critical information to understand where their supply comes from and therefore to manage supply chain risks including food safety and supply disruptions. These benefits resonate well with China’s food security concerns, and can also enable greater action on supply chain deforestation. 

Trase’s Global Engagement Lead André Vasconcelos told a side event at COP30, “When there is political will, when there is determination to address deforestation, it is possible.”

The way forward

There’s often a duality at COPs. The slow, messy work of multilateral diplomacy struggles to reach the necessary levels of decisiveness and ambition at the best of times – and right now it is hobbled by an especially difficult political moment, with the US retreating from the climate challenge. The final deal failed to mention transitioning away from fossil fuels, and there was no official roadmap to tackle deforestation.

Yet COPs are also moments of collaboration, connection and negotiation outside the diplomatic corridors. How civil society and Indigenous Peoples engage at COP matters: too often these voices have been overlooked. COP30 in Belém had the largest ever participation of Indigenous Peoples representatives than ever before, negotiating, speaking and protesting.

It was revitalising to see that protest visible and present in Belém. People have legitimate concerns with how their governments are dealing with the twin climate and nature crises but in recent previous COPs protest has been suppressed. That didn’t happen in Brazil. The spirit of grassroots deliberation and contestation was ever present, which is essential if we’re to keep pushing for change and demanding action.

And despite the disappointing final deal, the global mutirão will push on. The Brazilian Presidency offered an alternative – it will lead voluntary work on fossil transition and deforestation roadmaps, to be drawn up in time for COP31 in Turkey next year. While these, unlike a COP deal, are not codified at the highest level of collective political will, there is the potential for significant momentum behind them. More than eighty nations agreed in Belém on a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels and a similar number agreed to the deforestation roadmap. So now the baton falls to these nations to show leadership and highlight the path through the essential steps necessary to transition away from fossil fuels and deforestation. 

COP30 was never going to be an end or deliver all the solutions. It is simply part of a process. The next part of that process starts today and we cannot afford to step back.

“I cannot pretend that COP30 has delivered everything that is needed. The gap between where we are and what science demands remains dangerously wide. Staying below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century must remain humanity’s red line. I will continue pushing for higher ambition and greater solidarity. To all those who marched, negotiated, advised, reported and mobilised: do not give up.”

António Guterres, UN Secretary-General